1. Mega- Tsunami
What is a mega-tsunami? A mega-tsunami is simply a gigantic wave, one big enough to cross oceans and destroy cities. They can be thousands of feet high moving at supersonic speeds. They can be caused by huge meteors crashing into the ocean, or by massive landslides. No boat or building hit by a mega tsunami could survive. But now scientists believe that we could be sitting on a time bomb, that sooner or later one will destroy New York, Boston and Miami, and that nothing could stop it. When was the biggest tsunami?The largest tsunami in recorded history was in Lituya Bay, Canada, 1958. An earthquake measuring 8.3 on the Richter scale caused 40 million cubic metres of rock to fall into the sea. A wave more than half a kilometre high was created that surged through the bay devastating all in its path. This was not even a mega-tsunami, by these standards it was tiny, but it did show scientists what sort of wave a small landslide could cause. But what would be the effect of a big one? Where have mega tsunamis occurred in the past?Scientists hunted that world for sites that could potentially cause a mega tsunami. They discovered that at least eleven mega tsunamis had happened in the last 200,000 years, caused by island collapses in the Hawaiian and Canary islands. Where is one likely to occur in the future?The island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands off the coast of North Africa, was discovered to be in great danger of collapsing. The island is volcanic and during an eruption of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in 1949 part of the island slipped a few metres into the sea before stopping. Another eruption could cause the western flank of the island to collapse in the Atlantic Ocean. When will it happen?No one knows. It will happen during an eruption of Cumbre Vieja. It is an active volcano, last erupting in 1949. However the next eruption may not destroy the island, the next 10 may not. Only on thing is certain - one-day an incredible force will surge through the Atlantic Ocean. How big would it be?It would be far bigger than any wave ever seen for thousands of years. 500 billion tonnes of rock are waiting to collapse into the ocean at terrific speed. The collapse would create nearly 5,000,000,000,000,000 (5 thousand trillion) joules of kinetic energy, which would be converted into a colossal wave 900 metres high with awesome speed - within ten minutes it would have moved 250 kilometres. The landslide would continue to move underwater, powering the wave as it goes. What damage would it cause?No coastline in the North Atlantic would be spared. Britain, France, Spain and Portugal would all be badly hit North Africa would be hit by 100 metre waves, but the main wave would travel west. It would storm across the Atlantic in hours, hitting the Caribbean and Brazil badly. However, the real damage would be to the East coast of the USA. By the time it had travelled the 4000 miles to America the wave would be lower and wider. It would now be just 50 metres high but many kilometres long, allowing it to sweep up to 20 miles in land, destroying everything in its path. Boston, New York and Miami would virtually be wiped off the map. Skyscrapers would be bulldozed as if they weren't there. Bridges would be ripped from their foundations. And virtually every human in these cities would be killed. There would be indirect consequences around the world. The events of the 11 September wiped millions off stock markets around the world. What would be the effects of the destruction of not only the rest of New York, but also the rest of the East Coast on the world's economies? How can we stop it?Put simply, we can't. We have no technology that can stop a volcano erupting, no support that can hold 500 billion tonnes of rock and no barrier that can stop a wave moving at 500 miles per hour. All we can do is evacuate. But can we evacuate tens of millions of people with just a few hours notice? Unless evacuation plans were incredibly well thought out, no. Imagine New York's grid locked streets trying to cope with every person in the city on them. The alternative is evacuating when the volcano starts to erupt, possibly giving a few weeks warning. However, the island may not collapse on the next eruption, or even the next ten. Would we risk evacuating millions of people on the off chance? Could we risk not to?
2. Super Volcano
A super volcano is the most destructive force on this planet. Only a few exist in the world and when they erupt they do so with a force tens of thousands of times greater than other eruptions. They lie dormant for hundreds of thousands of years as a vast reservoir of magma builds up inside them before finally they unleash their apocalyptic force, capable of obliterating continents. They threaten the survival of mankind. What happened during the last eruption of a super volcano?The last eruption of a super volcano was in Toba, Sumatra, 75,000 years ago. It had 10,000 times the explosive force of Mount St. Helens and changed life on Earth forever. Thousands of cubic kilometres of ash was thrown into the atmosphere - so much that it blocked out light from the sun all over the world. 2,500 miles away 35 centimetres of ash coated the ground. Global temperatures plummeted by 21 degrees. The rain would have been so poisoned by the gasses that it would have turned black and strongly acidic. Man was pushed to the edge of extinction, the population forced down to just a couple of thousand. Three quarters of all plants in the northern hemisphere were killed. What causes super volcanoes?Super volcanoes differ from normal volcanoes in many ways. The stereotypical volcano is a towering cone, but super volcanoes form in depressions in the ground called calderas. When a normal volcano erupts lava gradually builds up in the mountain before releasing it. In super volcanoes when magma nears the surface it does not reach it, instead it begins to fill massive underground reservoirs. The magma melts the nearby rock to form more extremely thick magma. The magma is so viscous that volcanic gasses that normally trigger an eruption cannot pass, so a massive amount of pressure begins to build up. This continues for hundreds of thousands of years until an eruption occurs, which blasts away a huge amount of ground, forming a new caldera. Where are there other super volcanoes?Not all super volcanoes have been found, but one of the largest is in Yellowstone Park, USA. Scientists searching for the caldera in the park could not see it because it was so huge - only when satellite images were taken did the scale of the caldera become apparent - the whole park, 85km by 45km, is one massive reservoir of magma. The idyll landscape of Yellowstone (below) could soon explode with devastating consequences.When will it next erupt?Scientist have discovered that the ground in Yellowstone if 74cm higher than in was in 1923 - indicating a massive swelling underneath the park. The reservoir is filling with magma at an alarming rate. The volcano erupts with a near-clockwork cycle of every 600,000 years. The last eruption was more than 640,000 years ago - we are overdue for annihilation. What would be the effect of an eruption?Immediately before the eruption, there would be large earthquakes in the Yellowstone region. The ground would swell further with most of Yellowstone being uplifted. One earthquake would finally break the layer of rock that holds the magma in - and all the pressure the Earth can build up in 640,000 years would be unleashed in a cataclysmic event. Magma would be flung 50 kilometres into the atmosphere. Within a thousand kilometres virtually all life would be killed by falling ash, lava flows and the sheer explosive force of the eruption. Volcanic ash would coat places as far away as Iowa and the Gulf of Mexico. One thousand cubic kilometres of lava would pour out of the volcano, enough to coat the whole of the USA with a layer 5 inches thick. The explosion would have a force 2,500 times that of Mount St. Helens. It would be the loudest noise heard by man for 75,000 years, the time of the last super volcano eruption. Within minutes of the eruption tens of thousands would be dead. The long-term effects would be even more devastating. The thousands of cubic kilometres of ash that would shoot into the atmosphere could block out light from the sun, making global temperatures plummet. This is called a nuclear winter. As during the Sumatra eruption a large percentage of the world's plant life would be killed by the ash and drop in temperature. Also, virtually the entire of the grain harvest of the Great Plains would disappear in hours, as it would be coated in ash. Similar effects around the world would cause massive food shortages. If the temperatures plummet by the 21 degrees they did after the Sumatra eruption the Yellowstone super volcano eruption could truly be an extinction level event.
3. Meteor/Asteroid Showers" Most Famous type of Armageddon"
What is a Near Earth Object?A Near Earth Object is a fragment of rock and ice hurtling through space that passes dangerously close to Earth. It can be an asteroid or a comet, vast or tiny. These constantly bombard the Earth, every day. Shooting stars are caused by asteroids burning up in Earth's atmosphere. This is what destroys most of these, but occasionally one is large enough or moving at such a terrifying speed that it collides with the Earth's surface, with massive destructive potential. What damage could they cause?A NEO does not need to be large to devastate. One the size of a small garage would annihilate a large city. One big enough to leave a 10km crater, still nowhere near the size of the biggest (there is a 300km crater on Earth), would have the destructive force of every one of the world's 10,000 nuclear warhead combined. The one that wiped out the dinosaurs was several kilometres across. When have they hit before?The most famous example of the sheer power of NEO's was the extinction of the dinosaurs. To do this a large meteor, several kilometres across, would be required. Comets imprinted the face on the moon, which are clearly visible from 240,000 miles away. Earth will have sustained many more collisions than this, but erosion here is much greater, masking the destruction caused by these in the past. What would happen during a large collision?In 1994 a large comet hit Jupiter. The Hubble telescope recorded the impact with terrifying accuracy. As it entered the atmosphere of Jupiter temperatures reached 20,000 degrees. The impact sent a fireball thousands of kilometres into space. The damage of such an impact on Earth could kill all life. Huge earthquakes would streak around the globe at thousands of kilometres an hour, destroying all in their path. It would also trigger volcanic eruptions all over the world. A huge dust cloud would be sent into the atmosphere. Gasses released into the atmosphere would cause intensely acidic rain and destroy the ozone layer. A vast fireball would be sent into the sky. However devastating these would be, the real danger would be from the dust clouds sent into the atmosphere. The amount of debris released into the upper atmosphere would block out the sun, trigger a nuclear winter and potentially kill all life on Earth. What about smaller impacts?In 540AD, chronicles record the impact of a comet. They say that the 'whole sky seemed on fire' and that there were 'battles in the air'. One chillingly reports that 'real blood dropped from the clouds and dreadful mortality ensued'. These ominous words are backed up by evidence. Tree rings show how much a tree grew in each year, indicating the conditions at the time. In the years after 540AD these rings are remarkably close together, indicating stunted growth caused by a dramatically cold period. This was the result of the impact. But this was just its effect on trees - all over the world such an impact would have caused the famine, crop failures and plague outbreaks that occurred at that time. And this was only a small impact. This may sound like the distant past but in only 1908 an asteroid with a 80m diameter smashed into the forests of Tunguska, Siberia. A fireball exploded into the sky with the force of 200 atomic bombs. The blast was heard 1000km away. Millions of tonnes of dust were blasted into the atmosphere. For 2,000 square kilometres trees were flattened. Fortunately Tunguska is virtually unpopulated but the area destroyed is that of size of a large city - the casualties of such a meteor in an urban area are horrific. How many are there?We simply so not know. The largest yet discovered are an awesome 25 kilometres in length. Scientists estimate that there are around 1000 asteroids larger than 2km that pass close to Earth. An impact by any one of these would be an Extinction Level Event. Just as terrifyingly, there are more than a million bigger than 50metres across - each capable of destroying a city. How likely is an impact?Impacts on this scale occur alarmingly often. An impact similar to the one at Tunguska occurs approximately once per hundred years. Slightly smaller ones, but easily big enough to devastate a city, occur at least 5 times per century, for example Brazil in 1930. Not all these will hit the Siberian wilderness or Brazilian rainforest - sooner or later one will hit a major urban area. Just as bad, one could fall in the sea and trigger a mega-Tsunami. Those large enough to cause extinction, 2km in diameter, occur more rarely - approximately once per million years. This sounds to unlikely to be scared about? Scientists estimate that you stand a 1/20,000 chance of being killed by a meteor - much more likely than being winning much on the lottery. No large NEO yet discovered is on course for earth - but the total world wide effort searching is just 100 people. How can we stop them?If we discovered a NEO was on course for Earth we would have only three options. We could try to destroy the asteroid with high yield nuclear weapons. This would be extremely risky as without detailed knowledge of the structure of the NEO, no one could tell how much it would take to destroy it. Also, there is the risk of incompletely destroying the asteroid. This would results in many small NEOs. Not only would these be much harder to stop, but they could also cause far more damage as the whole of the Earth's surface could suffer impacts. The second option is to try to deflect the NEO. The most essential requirement for this is time, as the deflection required is inversely proportional to the time available. However, only small adjustments to the course of the asteroid or comet would be needed to make it miss Earth. The object could be diverted using nuclear weapons or placing 'mass drivers' on the object which, fuelled by substance on the asteroid, could divert its course. The third is to try to prepare for the impact. Ground zero - the area of impact - would have to be evacuated. This area could be vast with a large NEO. Nuclear winter would mean that natural food sources would be unavailable for at least a year, the surface of the planet would be inhospitable for an extended period and most infrastructure would be destroyed, delaying a return to civilization.
4.Nuclear War/ Thermonuclear Warfare
What is a Nuclear Weapon?A nuclear weapon is any device that harnesses the immense power of the atom to create a bomb. For all the hype, they are essentially nothing more than extremely powerful bombs, bombs large enough to obliterate vast cities. A typical nuclear warhead might have a power of one megaton. This means the power of 1,000,000 tons of TNT, the most powerful non-nuclear explosive. Imagine the size of this much TNT (a cube 300m by 300m by 300m) and compare it to one small nuclear warhead, and you realise the awesome power of nuclear weapons. How many nuclear weapons are there?There are more than 40,000, distributed as follows:· USA: 12,070· Russia: 28,240· UK: 400· France: 510· China: 425· India: 70· Pakistan: 15This many warheads could destroy the world many times over. What would an impact be like?The missile would be denoted above the ground, to maximise devastation. The first effect would be the heat, which would travel out form the bomb at the speed of light, burning everything for miles in 10,000°C flames. The air itself would seem to catch fire. Gas mains would explode; anyone seeing the blast from virtually any distance would be blinded. Then, seconds later, the shockwave would follow. This would smash through anything in its path, felling skyscrapers and blasting cars hundreds of feet into the air. It would be like a hurricane, just many times more powerful than anything natural. It would sweep through a city, destroying any structure within 15 kilometres of the blast. The shockwave would be so powerful that the air would not be able to absorb it all, so instead some energy would create an elector magnetic pulse that would destroy electrical circuit a huge distance from Ground Zero, potentially even knocking out satellites. Why have atomic bombs?The race to harness the power of the atom started in the World War 2. German and Allied scientists were desperate to develop the bomb, knowing that if the other side developed one first the war would be over. Fortunately, the German scientists abandoned the project near the end of the war, believing it to be impossible. The first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Things changed when Russia developed the bomb in 1949. Now Cold War enemies, Russia and America were locked in an arms race, both frantically producing thousands of warheads. However, it was only America that pursued the policy of MAD - mutually assured destruction. This effectively meant - and still does mean - allowing every American citizen to be held hostage by Russia. It means our only defence to a nuclear attack is one of our own, which does not save the lives of any of the hundreds of millions of people that would die in the strike. Russia never pursued this policy - it has always tried to protect its population. All its citizens are trained in how to survive nuclear attacks., Cities have large bomb shelters, unlike in America. There are comprehensive evacuation plans. Food is stored in reserve for the aftermath of an attack. Russia is much better equipped to survive a nuclear war than America. Russia spends around 50 times more than America per person per year on preparing for a nuclear attack. How do they work?Nuclear bombs are based on the forces that hold atoms together. When these are broken, energy is released. Also released are parts of the atom called neutrons. These then collide with other atoms, destroying these and releasing more energy and neutrons. This is a chain reaction, which releases a vast amount of energy. This is a simple atom bomb. Their power can be increased by adding hydrogen, in hydrogen bombs. When hydrogen is compressed by a vast amount, for example with the sort of energy created by an atom bomb, the atoms fuse together, creating a helium atom - and a lot more energy. The pressure required is greater than that in the centre of the sun. Who is known to have access to these weapons?Seven countries declare that they have nuclear weapons - the USA, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India and Pakistan. Israel is also known to have nuclear weapons but has never admitted it. South Africa is the only other country to have developed nuclear weapons but subsequently destroyed them. So we are left with eight nations. Which of these threatens the US?In order to pose a threat to the US, these countries need to get the warheads into range. For this, one of four things are needed:1. Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). These have ranges of thousands of kilometres, allowing countries to destroy each other from great range.2. Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs). These are nuclear weapons launched from a submarine. The submarine can be move close enough to a rival to destroy it with even short range missiles.3. Nearby missile bases. America has missile bases in Europe and, until fairly recently, Turkey. The USSR attempted to place missiles on Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis.4. Portable nuclear weapons, for example 'Suitcase Bombs'. These are small nuclear weapons that can be delivered by hand into an enemy's city, and then detonated. Another example would be placing nuclear bombs in trucks and driving into a city.Of our seven other nuclear countries (excluding the US), Britain and France are NATO allies. India, Pakistan and Israel lack either a reason or the capability to hit the USA. This leaves China and Russia. They have both the ability and, potentially, the motive to attack America. A Chinese missile strike would be devastating. Hundreds of cities would be destroyed, including every major one. But a Russian strike would be far worse. Virtually the entire population of America outside a nuclear bunker would be destroyed. Russia could scorch the entire surface of America many times over. Which other states have nuclear weapons programs?Prior to the Gulf War, Iraq had an advanced nuclear program. It had a state-of-the-art facility at Al Atheer, near Baghdad. This facility was destroyed by UN weapons inspectors in 1992. A plant was being built at Tarmiya that would allow Iraq to produce enough enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon every two years. Their research was helped by former Soviet scientists. Before Iraq's defeat in the Gulf war, nobody knew of this research, showing how nuclear monitoring is insufficient. A CIA report to Congress revealed that Iran is the most aggressive pursuer of nuclear weapons. In 1996 Iran attempted to acquire the required equipment from South Africa. In 1998 the Jerusalem Post reported that Iran had stolen to nuclear weapons from Kazakhstan. A US intelligence report said it was 98% sure that Iran had the necessary components for 2 or 3 nuclear weapons. Iran also ahs the necessary missiles to hit much of Europe. North Korea is also believed to have a nuclear program. It has a nuclear reactor at Yogbyon, which uses MAGNOX technology, making excellent for producing weapons grade plutonium. Several more reactors are planned, which would give a total output of weapons grade plutonium of 230kg per year - enough for 40 nuclear weapons. How difficult would it be for terrorists to construct nuclear weapons?Many terrorists, like Al Qaeda, are extremely well financed, and fanatical enough to commit an atrocity on this scale. They may also be able to pay former Soviet nuclear scientists, some of whom have helped other countries with nuclear research. The design would not be difficult - in an experiment three physics students were able to design a nuclear weapon using only freely available information. Well-researched terrorist could construct a bomb with little difficulty if they acquired sufficient plutonium. This is not impossible - nuclear reactors produce such fuel and many of these are in countries, such as North Korea that may be willing to sell. Al Qaeda has already tried to purchase plutonium in Sudan. Could terrorists have nuclear weapons?Nobody knows, but it is possible. The collapse of the USSR has led to the possibility of many nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands. Many terrorists would dream of creating such a weapon, but it would be cheaper to get ready made devices from the former USSR. The greatest risk from these could be 'suitcase bombs' - nuclear weapons the size of suitcases, which a terrorist could simply walk into a city with. Why are suitcase bombs such a great risk?Russia created around 250 suitcase bombs - nuclear weapons the size of suitcases. According to a Soviet defector called Aleksander Lebed it has lost track of more than 100 - each of which could kill more than 100,000 people. Many of these bombs were distributed and hidden in hostile countries. Possibly the worst effect of a terrorist nuclear device would be that it could trigger a nuclear war. If America thought Russia had used nuclear weapons against it, it would not hesitate to retaliate; so one small nuclear device could kill billions
5. Viral Infections
What is Biological Warfare?Biological warfare is the use of pathogens - bacteria and viruses that damage the body - to harm an enemy's population. They can be released to one person and spread to infect thousands or millions. They cause terror and death. Most pathogens that could be used have mortality rates (the percentage of those infected that die) of greater than 50%, some greater than 90%. Some are highly infectious, and can spread across a population with terrifying speed. Others can simply be posted to an enemy, as we saw during the anthrax attacks. Several of the most feared viruses cause agonising deaths - for example, Ebola liquefies the internal organs. Who would carry out Biological Warfare?Many countries - including the US - have had biological weapons programs. The present number developing such weapons is thought to be 17. This excludes the many terrorist groups also believed to be researching these weapons, and nations with stockpiles of these weapons. Of all these, many could have a motive to launch a biological attack on the US in the near future. Countries presently creating biological weapons include: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, North Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Egypt, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba, Bulgaria, India, South Korea, South Africa, China and Russia - a terrifying mixture of America's cold war enemies (China, Russia), rogue states (Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea), countries that could easily go to war in the near future (Israel, Taiwan) and other countries that despise America (Vietnam, Cuba). Add to this terrorists, like Al Queda and Aum Shinrikyo ('The Supreme Truth'), and a frightening number of people have the ability to start biological wars. When have they been used?So far biological weapons have had little used, mainly due to the lack of wars since their development. The largest use of biological weapons was during World War 2, when Japan used bubonic plague to kill 300,000 Chinese civilians. In 1974 a local cult used salmonella to infect 750 people. The terrorists Aum Shinrikyo tried to grow Botulism but failed. Why are they so dangerous?Biological weapons are arguably more dangerous than any other form of weapon, for these reasons:· Nuclear and chemical weapons only kill people in an isolated area, meaning that large numbers have to be used to kill most of an enemy's population. Biological weapons can kill thousands with a microscopic amount.· They are virtually undetectable before being deployed, allowing them to be transported into hostile countries by car or plane, as well as by missile.· They cause no damage to buildings, allowing a country to eliminate its enemies and move in to take control of undamaged cities.· They can kill far more people than any other type of weapon.· Even if only a few die, they cause terror within an enemy's population.· They are extremely cheap compared to other weapons. A vast arsenal can be grown from one sample. This is especially beneficial for terrorists.· They can be acquired with terrifying ease. Using only a false letterhead and credit card, a man in America was able to acquire a large amount of Bubonic Plague. He was later found to be a member of a white supremacist organisation, had he not been caught another outbreak of plague could have occurred. How could they be distributed?There are many ways in which they could be distributed. Russia developed techniques using missiles and bombs to spread the pathogens. Anthrax was recently deployed using the post. Al Queda attempted to acquire crop-dusting planes, which could be used to spread pathogens to millions. They could be released from conventional planes. Terrorists could release them in ventilation systems to spread them across a building. However they are spread, infectious pathogens could soon be passed to others, leading to casualties thousands of times greater than the original number infected. Which are the most dangerous pathogens?EbolaOne of the most feared viruses is Ebola and its close relatives Lassa and Marburg. These are viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs), which refers to the internal bleeding they cause. Blood starts bleeding out of the eyes, mouth and ears. The internal organs start to liquefy. The nervous system can degenerate, and patients suffer seizures and delirium. Some suffer shock or go into comas. Between 50 and 90% die an agonising death, making Ebola one of the most deadly viruses known. Death happens after just a week of infection, as victim dies they become convulsive, splashing infected blood around them. There is no vaccine, there is no cure. The virus is spread by human contact, allowing one infected human to spread it to many others. For example in 1996 a doctor treating patients with Ebola in Gabon unwittingly transmitted it to a nurse in South Africa when he travelled there, killing her. It can also be spread in bodily fluids, dangerous as Ebola victims bleed a lot, and through the air, but only for short distances. Bubonic PlagueIn 1347 bubonic plague slaughtered more than 40 million across Europe and China in one outbreak. Glands swell to the size of grapefruit, limbs fill with fluid and flesh turn dark purple. It was so devastating because of its combination of being highly contagious and nearly always lethal if untreated. The bacterium - yersinia pestis - also has an awesome reproductive rate - in ten hours a single copy can produce a billion others. This means that terrorists could grow a vast amount in just a few days. There is a vaccine but a surprise attack would overwhelm hospitals and could potentially kill thousands. In a country with no sophisticated health system the effects would be far worse, as the outbreaks in Europe in the Middle Ages showed. BotulismBotulism toxin is the single most poisonous substance known. It is highly lethal and infectious. Botulism can show its symptoms within just 2 hours of ingestion. It initially causes blurred vision, vomiting and nausea. Later, the toxin damages motor neurones, the nerves that connect the brain to muscles. This causes paralysis, and in some cases means that patients cannot even breathe for themselves. For these reasons botulism has been a weapon of choice, many countries have stockpiles of it and the terrorist group Aum Shinrikyo tried to create it. SmallpoxSmallpox is one of the most devastating of all infectious diseases. It is highly infectious, kills 30% of victims and can spread in any climate or season. It is carried in the air, making it extremely contagious and able to contaminate many people in a short time. Smallpox used to ravage the world but following a vaccination program in 1980 the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that it had been eradicated, so countries stopped vaccination. In the same year Russia started to produce large quantities, successfully adapting it for use on bombs or missiles. Russia's industry is still capable of producing vast amounts of smallpox, enough to kill hundreds of millions. Vaccination ceased in 1972 in the US - everyone born after that date has no immunity. AnthraxThe outbreak of anthrax by post last year reminded the world why anthrax is so feared. Many people were infected, several killed, but this was only on a tiny scale. If anthrax were spread through the air, more cases of the most dangerous form, inhalation anthrax, would occur. In the largest outbreak of inhalation Anthrax, in Sverdlovsk, Russia, 1979, 68 out of 79 died - 86% mortality rate. Al Queda tried to acquire crop-spraying planes for this purpose, but it could also be spread from a conventional aircraft. A US estimate suggested that just 100kg of anthrax released over Washington would kill up to 3 million people. A release of this much would be simple for terrorists who had acquired the bacteria. Staying indoors would be no protection - the spores are so tiny they could get inside. Anthrax could cause similar casualties to a nuclear weapon at a tiny fraction of the cost to terrorists and with far less technology.
6.Polar Ice Cap Melting
The vast majority of the world's great cities are on the coast, including virtually every city with a population of above 10 million. They were built there to utilise the sea by fishing and trading abroad. Many grew because of the size of their harbours. However, there are disadvantages to being located on the coast. It leaves these cities extremely vulnerable to a rise in sea levels. A rise of just a metre could mean that the ocean flowed into city streets at high tide. A rise of several metres would make holding this water back near impossible without hugely expensive flood defences. A rise of much more than that could mean that low lying area of cities would have to be evacuated. Imagine the consequences of what would happen if sea levels were to rise by more than 55 metres. New York, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, Sau Paulo, Bombay, Tokyo, Kobe, London and Shanghai, to name but a few, would all be swamped by this rise. Not only cities would suffer: thousands of islands would disappear, which would be especially difficult to evacuate in poor countries. Much of the world's best farmland is below this height and the loss of it could mean massive food shortages around the world. Our already overcrowded world would then have even less space and less food to go around. What might cause sea levels to rise?Global warming could potentially cause this massive increase. Global warming is a proven fact, no scientist debates that temperatures are rising. The debate is whether this is caused by greenhouse gasses (like carbon dioxide, methane and CFCs), but this is irrelevant to the ice caps. Global warming is having a dual effect on sea levels. Rising global temperatures make the sea warmer. As liquids warm they expand. This means that without any more water entering the sea, it is getting deeper. Scientists are already beginning to observe this effect as sea levels start to rise, watched in horror by inhabitants of small islands as the coastline recedes. The second effect is that the increased temperature will make Antarctica start to melt. As the ice warms, it melts, putting more water into the sea. If all of Antarctica melts sea levels would rise by 55 metres, although it would take a very large temperature rise for this to happen. Is there evidence that the ice caps are melting?Clearly it is vital to research if the ice caps are melting. A large amount of separate research suggests that it is already happening, and the rate of this can only increase if the predicted rise in the rate of global warming occurs. Here is only a small part of the evidence:· Since the 1950s the Arctic ice sheet has become 40% thinner during the summer and covers 15% less area.· Arctic temperatures are the warmest for 400 years· Since the 1960s snow cover has declined by 10%· In just seven years, Pine Island Glacier, part of the Antarctic ice sheet, has thinned by more than 5 feet.
7 Methane Explosions
At the ocean floor lies a sleeping monster, one that millions of years ago devastated the Earth, causing a mass-extinction, and today could be released again. It is silent, invisible and deadly, and contains double the energy of the entire world's fossil fuels combined. It is the frozen methane reserves at the bottom of the sea; capable of causing massive rises in global temperatures and igniting the atmosphere.Has frozen methane ever been released before?55 million years ago, 20% of the world's frozen methane reserves melted. This sparked cataclysmic changes in the atmosphere: global temperatures rose by 13 degrees Fahrenheit, melting the ice cps and forcing many species to extinction. 80% of all deep-sea creatures became extinct, and there were severe consequences for land animals. If vast amounts of methane were released, the highly explosive gas would be ignited by lightning, scorching huge area in a fiery hell-on-earth.What is methane?Methane is an extremely flammable and explosive gas. At the bottom of the ocean it is found in a form called 'methane hydrate', when the particles are locked in a lattice with water. When this melts, it releases methane gas with 160 times this volume. Methane hydrate is found deep in the oceans, more than 350m down. It is estimated that there is more than 200,000 trillion cubic feet of this gas at the bottom of the ocean; 80,000 times conventional natural gas reserves.How is it released?Small bursts of methane hydrate can be released by sudden events that break the lattice, such as landslides and earthquakes on the ocean floor. This releases a large amount of methane from the local area. This has been suggested as a possible explanation for the Bermuda Triangle - an area of ocean in the South Atlantic where dozens of ships and planes have disappeared without trace. The theory goes that landslides release the methane, which explodes on contact with, for example, a plane's engines. This shows how dangerous even small bursts can be.It would take a bigger event than an earthquake or landslide to start releasing vast quantities of methane hydrate. The current fear is that global warming would increase the ocean temperature to the point where frozen methane starts to melt all over the world.What would be the effects if the gas was released?If a large proportion of the gas were released the effects would be devastating. If hundreds of thousands of trillions of tons were released into the atmosphere, the rate global warming would skyrocket. Methane is 20 times more powerful a gas at raising global temperatures than carbon dioxide, so a release of a vast quantity of gas would cause huge temperature rises around the world. If temperatures rose by the 13 degrees Fahrenheit they did during the last release, ice caps would start to melt flooding large areas of the Earth. Worse, the gas would be ignited by lightning, leaving huge fires over areas of land, with coastal areas at especially great risk of destruction. Many cities that escaped the rising sea levels would not be spared the fire.
